By Mike Wackett

(The Loadstar) – Despite Maersk Line’s better-than-expected $37m first-quarter web revenue, Drewry immediately reiterated its view that ocean carriers would collectively report a big loss this yr.

“Carrier profit margins this year will be influenced by big swings on both prices and costs, but as things stand carriers will lose between $6bn-$10bn this year,” it stated in evaluation revealed this morning.

It described the Q1 outcomes which have up to now been revealed as “patchy”, in as a lot as Maersk and US Jones Act provider Matson made working income whereas others “sank further into the red”.

Indeed, on Friday NOL posted a first-quarter web lack of $105m by its APL container division, in contrast with an $11m loss in the identical interval of 2015 – and except for Maersk and Matson, all different carriers reporting up to now have recorded Q1 losses.

However, Drewry conceded that container traces had a minimum of stemmed the quarter-on-quarter deterioration that started within the second quarter of final yr.

Despite worsening buying and selling as 2015 progressed, early features enabled the trade to report an working revenue of about $5bn, stated Drewry.

Drewry admitted that Maersk Line’s outcome had “defied expectations”, as most analysts (together with Drewry itself) had predicted additional purple ink from the Danish provider, following the $165m web loss incurred within the last three months of 2015.

Maersk’s outcome, achieved on the again of 16% unit price financial savings, was assisted by a 50% discount in gasoline prices, though a deeper evaluation of its accounts confirmed that extra income from demurrage – typically not effectively collected by carriers prior to now – and earnings from slot charters had helped to push it into the black within the quarter.

Drewry factors to the damaging traits of each freight charges and gasoline prices as its motive for continued pessimism. It stated that barring non permanent common price improve (GRI)-induced hikes, carriers had not had any success in elevating spot market charges, and that anecdotal reviews of considerably diminished contract charges “suggested that worse was still to come on the revenue side”.

And in regard to bunker prices, Drewry notes that costs have been steadily inching up since mid-January and are actually at just below $200 per tonne for heavy gasoline oil, versus the low of round $100 per tonne on the finish of final yr.

Maersk Line is “not necessarily the best bellwether for the industry at large” urged Drewry, given its “huge size differential to almost all of its peers”.

Maersk Line chief govt Soren Skou was optimistic on the outlook for the provider: “We expect the market to pick up towards the third quarter of 2016. Our network is now operating with very high utilisation and our vessels are full on the Asia-Europe trade.”

However, Drewry added: “Repeating the same cost savings will get tougher as the year progresses with bunkers on the rise, making it even more important for carriers to get freight rates off the floor.”

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