Image: DNV GL
A brand-new version of DNV GL’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 launched at London International Shipping Week 2019 concentrates on the obstacle of lowering the carbon strength of the worldwide fleet to satisfy the enthusiastic targets established by the IMO’s greenhouse gas decrease (GHG) approach.
“Existing technology can deliver the future we desire – including meeting the 1.5°C target set out in the Paris Agreement,” claimed Remi Eriksen, Group President and also CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER of DNV GL. “So far, support for the energy transition has been too sporadic. We need a broad and coordinated policy agenda that supports new technologies as they emerge and sustains that support through the build-out phase.”
This year’s Maritime Forecast checks out just how the globe fleet determines up in regards to decarbonization and also takes a look at various approaches and also paths the market can require to reach this objective.
The Maritime Forecast to 2050 evaluations 3 governing situations (proceeding under present plans, laws ending up being slowly more stringent, or really stringent laws presented in the direction of completion of the 2050 target date) and also just how these might impact the shift to reduced and also carbon neutral gas. Improvements generally power performance in on-board procedures is additionally consisted of as an important part of lowering exhausts.
“One of the key components to meet the decarbonization challenge is fuel flexibility, as the fuels of today may not be the fuels of tomorrow,” claimed Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER of DNV GL–Maritime “This means having a picture of the entire fuel ecosystem is vital, as owners, operators, and the industry itself will have a much tougher time adapting to a low-carbon future if they are locked into a single choice.”
Fuel adaptability and also modern technologies to connect transforming gas use have actually been recognized in the Forecast as necessary approaches for both private proprietors and also the delivery market to adjust to the power shift and also get ready for a reduced carbon future. In the deep-sea section specifically, dual-fuel options and also different gas “ready” options might smooth this shift, by preparing for a future retrofit. Combined with linking modern technologies such as versatile tank, onboard systems and also shore-side gas framework, this might offer the market much more choices as brand-new gas and also modern technologies arise.
“Ships built today will have to compete with vessels coming onto the market in five, ten or 15 years’ time, and must consider future standards to remain competitive,” claimed Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen “Considering the uncertain future that lies ahead, failing to be future-proof in the newbuilding phase could lead to that asset being stranded in the not so distant future. In addition, CO2 emissions could become an important rate differentiator and we have already seen forward-looking charterers start down this road.”
The Forecast reveals that the uptake of low-carbon and also carbon-neutral gas is important to satisfying IMO GHG objectives, with carbon-neutral gas needing to provide 30– 40% of the worldwide fleet’s complete power by 2050.
Under various governing paths, nonetheless, the design anticipates that a range of gas might come forward. In every one of the paths, dissolved methane (from both fossil and also non-fossil resources) offers a huge component (40– 80%) of the gas mix at 2050.
The Forecast additionally recommends that in the deep-sea market, ammonia, biodiesel, fluid biogas and also electrofuels are encouraging carbon neutral choices, with battery, crossbreed, and also hydrogen options being possible choices for the short-sea section.
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You can download and install the complete Maritime Forecast to 2050 HERE
