GAO says lack of a schedule danger evaluation threatens on-time Columbia lead sub supply, [Image: General Dynamics Electric Boat]
The Navy has lengthy said that the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine program is its highest shipbuilding precedence. The Columbia class will substitute the Ohio class submarines that at the moment present the sea-based leg of the U.S. nuclear deterrence triad. With Ohio-class retirements deliberate to start in FY 2027, the lead Columbia class submarine must be prepared for its first patrol earlier than October 2030 to forestall a niche in deterrence.
The Navy plans to speculate roughly $132 billion to amass 12 Columbia class submarines and plans to have the primary delivered in April 2027. A brand new report from the U.S. Government General Accounting Office (GAO) is warning that the schedule may very well be in danger.
NEEDED: SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS
The watchdog company says that the Navy plans to ship the primary Columbia class submarine—the most important and most complicated submarine in its historical past—extra rapidly than it did for the lead submarines of prior lessons, such because the Virginia class. But, says GAO, “the shipbuilder has not conducted a schedule risk analysis of the lead submarine’s construction schedule. Both GAO leading practices and Department of Defense (DOD) guidance identify schedule risk analysis as a critical tool for understanding and managing program risks that could impact the schedule.”
Without a statistical schedule danger evaluation, says GAO, packages have restricted perception into how schedule dangers may have an effect on the probability of reaching key program milestones, together with supply, and the quantity of margin—or a reserve of additional time—wanted to handle important dangers and keep away from delays.
“After more than a year of full-scale construction on the lead Columbia submarine, the shipbuilders are facing delays because of challenges with design, materials, and quality,” says GAO. “The shipbuilders are working to mitigate delays using additional shipyard resources, such as more staff to complete work more quickly. Because of the Columbia class program’s essential role in strategic deterrence, it has priority status over most national defense related programs, including the Virginia class program. The shipbuilder added staff to the Columbia class program who were originally planned for the Virginia class program, contributing to delays for that program. However, long-term planning does not account for shared risks between these programs that are likely to present production challenges and could result in additional costs. Without updated long-term planning, the Navy cannot be certain that the fiscal year 2024 budget request will be sufficient to meet the production schedule it has planned for these submarine classes.”
- Download the full GAO report
