More Big Ship Deliveries Set to Boost Overcapacity
By Mike Wackett
(The Loadstar) – The seemingly endless quest by ocean carriers to function larger ships was a big spur for orders for 60 18,000-22,000 teu behemoths in 2015, in line with Alphaliner.
Carriers had been apparently undeterred by weakening market circumstances final 12 months and continued their big-ship methods – ultra-large container vessels (ULCVs) representing 24% of the entire mobile orderbook.
The analyst warned that the “ongoing race” between carriers inside the 4 east-west vessel-sharing alliances to have the bottom unit prices, by motive of the very best nominal capability, would add to additional overcapacity pressures, as a result of excessive variety of ULCVs to be delivered within the coming years.
Indeed, there are already indicators that carriers have too many ULCVs – which, however the current trial on the transpacific tradelane by the 17,859 teu CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin, are usually restricted of their deployment to the Asia-Europe routes.
In order to acquire the holy grail of lowest unit value, equating to the most affordable fee provides available in the market, carriers should obtain excessive load components, thus exerting additional downward strain on freight charges as the decision goes out to gross sales groups: “Fill the ship at all costs.”
One provider instructed The Loadstar lately that to effectively service the commerce it ideally wanted a mix of different-sized ships going between Asia and North Europe, fairly than a one-shoe-fits-all ULCV fleet.
Moreover, notes Alphaliner , there have been 52 items of 10,000-13,300 teu ordered final 12 months, albeit that these ships may very well be deployed on companies going through the enlarged Panama Canal after it opens.
Meanwhile, in line with Alphaliner’s newest knowledge, the world’s mobile containership fleet had by the top of 2015 reached a complete slot capability of 19.94m teu, representing an 8.5% development over the earlier 12 months.
A file 214 new containerships entered the market final 12 months, including 1.72m teu to the fleet. However, in line with knowledge from shipbroker Braemar ACM, there have been simply 93 vessels, or 213,000 teu demolished final 12 months, as scrapping costs declined because of the worldwide metal glut.
The consequence of diminished scrapping for the container transport trade – in addition to different transport sectors (excluding tankers buoyed by oil storage charters) – is that constitution charges have begun the 12 months underneath extreme strain once more.
And within the absence of demand, for a lot of house owners and operators there seems no choice however to lay-up their very own or long-term-chartered ships, persevering with the development of 2015 which noticed the idle containership fleet swell five-fold to 1.36m teu – 6.8% of the worldwide fleet.
Alphaliner doesn’t see ‘early light at the end of the tunnel’ for the container liner trade, and notes that in February’s post-Chinese New Year vacation interval there are a number of blanked sailings deliberate, which it mentioned would result in a number of giant ships being idled.
“A significant reduction of the idle fleet is thus not expected until April,” it mentioned.
The Loadstar is quick changing into recognized on the highest ranges of logistics and provide chain administration as among the best sources of influential evaluation and commentary.
Check them out at TheLoadstar.co.uk, or discover them on Facebook and Twitter.