By David Fickling and also Rani Molla

(Bloomberg Gadfly)– Here’s some great information for the hard-pressed delivery sector: Of the leading 15 container lines that functioned 9 months earlier, 4 have actually failed or remain in the procedure of doing so.

Here’s some not-so-good information: The worldwide container fleet is still growing.

The globe’s seventh-largest container line, Korea’s Hanjin Shipping, applied for receivership recently. APL, run by Singapore’s Neptune Orient, was demolished by CMA CGM previously this year in the sector’s greatest requisition because 2005. Hapag-Lloyd remains in the procedure of a merging with United Arab Shipping and also China’s 2 greatest state-owned container fleets have actually been integrated to produce Cosco Container.

Unfortunately, all that dealmaking by itself does bit greater than transform the proprietor’s or charterer’s name on a ship register. What the sector requires is either even more profession, or less ships.

Container delivery is absolutely obtaining even more focused than it was. Assuming the Hapag-Lloyd- UASC merging experiences and also Hyundai Merchant gets Hanjin’s fleet, as Korea’s economic regulatory authority has actually recommended, after that the leading 6 delivery lines will certainly have gone from managing concerning 53 percent of the worldwide fleet to 63 percent, according to Alphaliner, a delivery information solution.

Percentage of worldwide fleet covered by 3 delivery partnerships: 80%

That change to a much less open market should supply some aid in raising container prices– particularly as every one of the leading 10 fleets with the exemption of Hamburg-Sued are currently participants of among 3 delivery partnerships, which with each other include concerning 80 percent of worldwide vessels.

The trouble for lines is that decreased competitors hasn’t sufficed to juice container prices back right into favorable region. Even after recoiling from their reduced of $666 per 40-foot box previously this year, the benchmark price for delivering a container on significant courses stays stubbornly listed below prices that also market leader Maersk has a hard time to obtain listed below $2,000.

There’s merely insufficient profession taking place to fill up all the ships on the sea. The worth of worldwide products exports touched its cheapest degree in 6 years in February and also has actually been going for restrained degrees all year, according to theInternational Monetary Fund Container quantities can be thought to be entering about the exact same instructions:

As an outcome, concerning a fifth of the worldwide container fleet is resting at support, up from much less than 8 percent in profession’s prime time in advance of the 2008 economic situation. Hanjin’s whole fleet is presently marooned offshore, as ports will not approve its ships at dock for anxiety that the firm will certainly be incapable to pay coast charges or will certainly have its possessions confiscated by lenders, Bloomberg’s Sohee Kim and also Kyunghee Park reported Wednesday.

Shipping lines have 2 primary alternatives to endure this cyclone. They can stick around, wish their financial debts do not bewilder them in the manner in which Hanjin’s and also Hyundai Merchant’s have actually done, and also count on that profession will at some point recoup and also begin loading their holds once more. But that’s a high-stakes wager, provided the surge in protectionist procedures in significant economic climates, the U.K.’s ballot this year to leave the EU, and also a united state governmental project in which both prospects have actually articulated resistance to some profession bargains.

The much shorter path back to productivity will certainly be to lower the dimension of the fleet by transforming several of those excess ships right into scrap steel– yet that will certainly take a while. Low scrap rates make demolition a much less appealing choice nowadays, and also in the meanwhile brand-new vessels bought prior to the present situation are still being provided, including in the excess.

While the quantity of container ships being separated has actually increased greatly this year, the overall fleet still took care of to increase over 20 million 20-foot equal devices for the very first time in background in July, according toClarksons Research Turning round a huge box ship is a sluggish procedure. Turning round the worldwide container fleet will certainly take also much longer.

This column does not always show the viewpoint of Bloomberg LP and also its proprietors.

© 2016 Bloomberg L.P