By Brian Okay. Sullivan

(Bloomberg) — Brace your self, U.S. South. The Mississippi River is coming, and so are the Arkansas, the Red, the Ohio and the Missouri.

The water on the Mississippi River is already so excessive that Missouri has closed interstate highways. Governor Jay Nixon activated the National Guard to stave off catastrophe.

And the floods solely stand to worsen. Warmer-than-usual climate by way of December has precipitation falling as rain. Some areas have seen 5 to 10 inches (12 to 24 centimeters) above regular flowing into the rivers as a substitute of being locked up as snow and ice on strong floor till spring. Flooding on the decrease Mississippi might turn out to be extreme sufficient to drive the opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway defending New Orleans, in accordance with the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center.

“It is very unusual,” stated Jeff Graschel, a hydrologist on the forecast heart, an arm of the National Weather Service. “We have a pretty significant flood event over the Mississippi and Ohio rivers. The magnitudes are a little less than 2011.”

In different phrases, this 12 months’s water ranges are simply shy of recent data. Four years in the past, flooding was so extreme that Charles Camillo, an Army Corps of Engineers historian, wrote a guide about it. Overflowing rivers deluged cities, slowed barge visitors and threatened refinery and chemical plant operations. The solely distinction is the 2011 flood occurred in May.

Flood Stage

Today, the Missouri River is at a significant flood stage, and it’s pouring into an already swollen Mississippi, forecast to succeed in its second-highest crest at St. Louis across the begin of the brand new 12 months. All of that water will be part of the Ohio and collectively circulate towards a number of the most densely packed industrial river fronts within the nation.

“We are going to exceed records for this time of year for the Mississippi and the Ohio,” stated Graschel, primarily based in Slidell, Louisiana.

Barges on the Mississippi deal with about 60 % of U.S. grain exports getting into the Gulf of Mexico by way of New Orleans, in addition to 22 % of its petroleum and 20 % of its coal. Flooding had raised the prices for barge supply to export terminals in New Orleans by 10 cents a bushel for soybeans and 5 cents for corn since Friday, INTL FCStone Inc. stated Tuesday.

Refineries, Factories

Dow Chemical Co., Archer-Daniels Midland Co. and Valero Energy Corp. are among the many corporations with refineries, factories and delivery websites alongside the river. They’re all nonetheless weeks away from seeing flooding, as Graschel stated it isn’t forecast to succeed in New Orleans till the third week of January.

Even after the flood bulge makes its method into the Gulf of Mexico, the vigil must proceed, he stated. There remains to be a winter’s value of rain and snow coming, partially due to this 12 months’s robust El Nino.

“We will certainly have to be more watchful,” Graschel stated.

–With help from Jeff Wilson and Megan Durisin.

©2015 Bloomberg News