Australia will nonetheless want substantial fuel manufacturing 26 years from now to make sure dependable and inexpensive power in 2050, even underneath a internet zero state of affairs, based on The future function of pure fuel in Australia and the area.
EY was commissioned by Australian Energy Producers to offer an impartial evaluation of the longer term function of pure fuel in Australia and the area to tell Australia’s Future Gas Strategy. EY examined round 350 internet zero pathways world wide and has really helpful Australia ought to put together for a number of fuel manufacturing eventualities because of the uncertainty of the transition.
“Gas is expected to play a major role in the global net zero transition,” the report mentioned. “Ongoing investment in gas supply is required to maintain production levels from operating fields. As these fields begin to decline, investment in new supply options will be required to meet projected demand.
“To manage the risks associated with the transition to net zero Australia’s energy and climate mitigation policy needs to prepare for all three future scenarios, with policy and regulatory actions that keep as many pathways to net zero viable for as long as possible.”
“Preparing for only one pathway leaves Australia extremely vulnerable to developments that are outside Australia’s control.”
Under the Electrify Scenario, home and regional demand for Australian fuel would complete 56% of present manufacturing ranges in 2050 after a renewable rollout equal to twenty instances present ranges.
Under the Blended Scenario, demand for Australian fuel would improve to 2040 earlier than lowering to 86% of present ranges by 2050 as renewables develop to 13 instances present ranges.
Under the Capture Scenario, demand for Australian fuel would rise 30% from present ranges by 2050 with a extra restricted renewable rollout at solely 10 instances present ranges.
Australian Energy Producers Chief Executive Samantha McCulloch mentioned: “The study shows gas is a safety net for Australia’s energy transition, providing affordable and reliable energy for households and businesses.
“The inclusion of natural gas as a core pillar of Australia’s energy and climate policies will speed up the transformation and secure substantial economic benefits from net zero.”
The report discovered Australia’s distinctive place serving rising Asian demand meant it needed to chart its personal course, capturing extra of the worldwide market and decreasing emissions by way of supporting renewable roll-out and coal-to-gas switching.
The report famous that LNG represents “a significant export revenue opportunity for Australia across all three scenarios, even where LNG exports are complemented by low-carbon hydrogen exports over time.”
McCulloch added: “Australia needs to plan for both strong domestic and international demand for gas to secure the associated emissions reduction and economic opportunities.
“As well as keeping the lights on across Australia and the region, Australia’s gas industry delivered over $16 billion of government revenues last financial year and spent another $45 billion with Australian businesses, all the while supporting tens of thousands of jobs across the economy.”
The report discovered Australia’s fuel trade additionally had a essential function to play in rolling out internet zero applied sciences and fuels together with carbon seize, utilisation and storage (CCUS) and low-carbon hydrogen.
“CCUS and hydrogen are key complements to natural gas in a zero emissions future — all plausible net zero pathways involve CCUS and hydrogen at different scales,” the report mentioned.
