Everything You Need to Know About the South China Sea Conflict… In Five Questions

By William Johnson

June 9 (Reuters) – 1. Whose South China Sea is it, anyway?

China’s declare to the South China Sea is predicated in historical past, relationship again to information from the Xia and Han dynasties. China delineates its claims by way of the nine-dash line, which Chiang Kai Shek superior in 1947. During China’s republican period, China surveyed, mapped and named 291 islands and reefs within the area.

The United States contends that the South China Sea is worldwide water, and sovereignty within the space needs to be decided by the United Nations Convention on Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS). UNCLOS states that nations can’t declare sovereignty over any land lots which might be submerged at excessive tide, or that have been beforehand submerged however have been raised above excessive tide stage by building.

2. Why does China need to management the South China Sea?

Control of the South China Sea would enable China to dominate a serious commerce route by which most of its imported oil flows. It would additionally enable China to disrupt, or threaten to disrupt, commerce shipments to all nations in East and Southeast Asia – in addition to deny entry to international navy forces, notably the United States.

The ground of the South China Sea could comprise large oil and pure gasoline reserves. Sovereignty over the area may give China a stage of vitality safety and independence far past what it presently possesses.

3. Who has constructed what?

Island constructing within the South China Sea, and building on present islands, has been happening for many years, primarily by Vietnam and the Philippines, which have claimed 21 and eight islands, respectively. Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines have all stationed navy forces on not less than a few of their islands, however Vietnam, in accordance with UNCLOS regulation, has not put troops on what it calls “floating islands” – these constructed on submerged sandbars, reefs and different land lots.

China has come late to the island constructing recreation, however its efforts have been on a scale by no means earlier than seen within the area. In the final 18 months, China has reportedly constructed extra new island floor than all different nations have constructed all through historical past. And not like different claimants, China has, not less than briefly, positioned navy gear on certainly one of its synthetic islands, and officers have mentioned that the federal government plans to take action once more. More importantly, solely China possesses sufficient fashionable navy vessels to guard its claims.

4. What is the U.S. response to the dispute?

The United States had nearly no response to earlier constructing by Southeast Asian nations within the South China Sea, however has vigorously opposed China’s efforts. The U.S. Navy has operated constantly within the area since World War Two and, in accordance with Defense Secretary Ash Carter, has each intention of constant to take action.

The United States will use its plane and naval vessels to claim freedom of navigation within the area, as demonstrated by the latest passage of the USS Fort Worth fight ship and the flight, by a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon surveillance plane, over the Chinese building at Fiery Reef.

Beyond freedom of navigation missions, the United States is targeted on strengthening regional allies. To accomplish that, it would assist enhance its allies’ intelligence gathering and surveillance capabilities, and supply them with up to date navy {hardware} to counter China’s technical benefits in each amount and high quality. (The Philippines, the recipient of U.S. navy help and coaching since World War Two, is sorely missing in navy {hardware}, having solely two very outdated U.S. Coast Guard cutters with which to reply to Chinese incursions.)

Japan, in shut coordination with the United States, is to provide navy {hardware} to the Philippines and Vietnam.

5. What ought to the world anticipate subsequent?

The dispute between the United States and China is prone to escalate to a point. U.S. Pacific Command planners are making ready to sail and fly inside 12 nautical miles of areas that China claims as sovereign territory. The USS Fort Worth and a P-8 surveillance plane have already operated shut by, and whereas China objected, it didn’t take hostile motion.

However, China has said that it’s going to defend what it considers its territorial restrict. If the Chinese authorities blinks, it may endure domestically because of the lack of face for the Communist Party. If the United States wavers, it would danger perpetuating the impression, amongst U.S. companions and allies, that it lacks resolve in gentle of its coverage within the Middle East, Iraq and Ukraine.

The stakes are excessive for either side, as is the danger of a miscalculation. The United States is marshaling main allies within the area to take a task, within the hope that the mixed weight of U.S., Japanese and Australian forces will give China pause. (William Johnson)