The slowing development within the measurement of the world’s delivery fleet is prone to cut back the persistent scarcity of officers over the approaching years, in accordance with the most recent Manning report printed by international delivery consultancy Drewry.

The international delivery fleet, encompassing all sectors besides the non-cargo carrying ship sorts (comparable to tugs, passenger ships, and oil tankers and bulk carriers lower than 10,000 dwt), is anticipated to rise by a mere 300 vessels by 2016-2020. As a outcome, the scarcity in officer provide is forecast to scale back from 20,900 on the finish of 2015 to 7,700 by the top of 2020, Drewry estimates.

Drewry’s forecast comes after 2015 proved itself to be a dreadful 12 months for simply each delivery sector, possibly apart from oil tankers. Weak demand, mixed with falling commodity costs and oversupply of tonnage in most sectors led to charges collapsing to ranges not seen because the international monetary meltdown in 2008-2009.

“Growing concerns in the global economy and depressed freight earnings have forced owners to refrain from contracting new orders, while order cancellations and vessel demolitions have become a regular feature of the market,” Drewry stated in a press launch asserting the report.

Drewry stated this slowdown has compelled homeowners and operators to scale back prices, in flip holding any improve in wage ranges to a naked minimal. “While manning costs for 2016 are largely similar to those in 2015, in some sectors, such as LNG, there have been some uplifts in wage costs over the past year. However, the offshore sector, in particular, has witnessed wage reductions in light of falling oil prices and an uncertain economic outlook,” Drewry stated.

“With the growth in the size of the cargo carrying fleet tapering off, we expect the ongoing officer shortage to ease and for wage costs to increase modestly over the next five years”, commented Nikhil Jain, senior analyst at Drewry.

In June 2015, Drewry estimated that delivery would require a further 42,500 officers by the top of 2019 to deal with the anticipated development in the primary cargo carrying fleet, however stated the persistent scarcity of officer crew was receding. Drewry estimated the officer provide on the time to be within the order of 615,000 with a nominal shortfall of roughly 15,000 officers, which Drewry stated it anticipated to stay the case till 2019.